The Geopolitics of U.S.–Iran Confrontation: Structural Deterrence, Asymmetric Warfare, and Regional Order

This study examines the geopolitical dynamics governing military and diplomatic confrontation between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Integrating neo-realist balance-of-power theory with asymmetric deterrence frameworks, the paper evaluates structural drivers of conflict: Tehran’s forward-defense doctrine, Washington’s regional maritime hegemony, the weaponization of economic sanctions, and the systemic vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz. By examining operational mechanisms—such as the "Axis of Resistance" proxy architecture, anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) envelopes, and counter-value economic disruption—this paper illustrates why conventional military superiority struggles to yield decisive strategic outcomes in modern regional theaters. Finally, it assesses the multipolar dimension of the conflict, tracing how strategic hedging by China and Russia transforms Persian Gulf stability into a critical node of twenty-first-century great-power rivalry.

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